We all have opinions. My opinion is that tariffs is just a big bazooka Trump is threatening to use to induce other nations to do certain things. For example, Trump believes (and is correct) that European nations aren't pulling their weight financing NATO, and if they pony up to Trump's target of X% GDP, then the tariffs go away. And if Mexico stops illegal migrants & fentanyl into the USA, he'll lower tariffs against them as well. The economic theory is that if a tariff raises a foreign product to sell at X dollars, that sets the market price of domestic products to the same X dollars. But if my scenario is correct... and Trump's tariffs don't get implemented because NATO countries raise their contributions to the alliance... (et cetera) then we may not experience the economic Armageddon the commentators are all antsy about.
Just think how much less trouble it would be to have a statesman at the helm, who could get people on the same page without this tariff switcheroo nonsense. All of this bully-boy posturing has injected a shit-ton of uncertainty into the markets. Inflation is already a certainty, from my standpoint. But I am not an economist. ;)
Well ... you're right to be concerned, and you're right to question the rationality. News media plays to our short attention spans and almost total lack of knowledge of our past and lack of basic education. I'm not gonna say how I personally feel, at least not yet. This whole thing needs a lot of time to play out, knowing there are MANY variables that will change during the effort. But perhaps we could agree that our nation could not continue on the path of spending someone else's money forever (your daughter's, my sons'). I take this as a fact. So something needed to be done. That's where we really should begin your story/essay. Thanks Dave, let's see how this trariff thing unravels together.
Ha! Yeah, Dave. I can totally relate to the hesitation of sending out an opinion. I’ve got a dear friend with whom I very much disagree. As I do with your negative Trump opinions. Wouldn’t call myself a disciple, thanks for the knock, though. I’d say I give the guy the benefit of the doubt. For decades he has complained of the ‘loser deals’ our politicians and bureaucrats have accepted. He’s doing something about it and tariffs are the stick to get access to the American consumer market carrot.
I agree, technology is evolving quick. If you listen to Peter Zeihan, it better. Global population will follow Japan and Germany. Who knows where it all leads?
But I’ll tell you this - Biden’s administration hammered us with significant inflation which has yet to retreat. Our government will choose inflation over tax increases every time. Tariffs or taxes, we will pay either way.
Maybe do some research on how the UK did after they lost the global currency.
The video was really helpful. The challenge with bullying as a main strategy is that it tends to work short term and backfire long-term. Win-win is just more effective generally than win-lose. I foresee the rest of the world beginning to work together around us while inflation continues to grow and the number of jobs created don't pay enough to outweigh the costs. Multinational companies are great at symbolic acts that do not make a significant difference but fool everyone who is ready to be fooled. By the way, Nvidia is a company with very close ties to China...I hope that I am wrong but I am worried.
I'm also not an economist, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night... However, the US must refinance 9.2 Trillion in debt this year, maybe by the end of June. The Fed meets in May. A trade war scares investors. When investors shift money from stocks to Treasury bonds, interest rates tend to fall. There's more to this than meets the eye.
We all have opinions. My opinion is that tariffs is just a big bazooka Trump is threatening to use to induce other nations to do certain things. For example, Trump believes (and is correct) that European nations aren't pulling their weight financing NATO, and if they pony up to Trump's target of X% GDP, then the tariffs go away. And if Mexico stops illegal migrants & fentanyl into the USA, he'll lower tariffs against them as well. The economic theory is that if a tariff raises a foreign product to sell at X dollars, that sets the market price of domestic products to the same X dollars. But if my scenario is correct... and Trump's tariffs don't get implemented because NATO countries raise their contributions to the alliance... (et cetera) then we may not experience the economic Armageddon the commentators are all antsy about.
Just think how much less trouble it would be to have a statesman at the helm, who could get people on the same page without this tariff switcheroo nonsense. All of this bully-boy posturing has injected a shit-ton of uncertainty into the markets. Inflation is already a certainty, from my standpoint. But I am not an economist. ;)
Well ... you're right to be concerned, and you're right to question the rationality. News media plays to our short attention spans and almost total lack of knowledge of our past and lack of basic education. I'm not gonna say how I personally feel, at least not yet. This whole thing needs a lot of time to play out, knowing there are MANY variables that will change during the effort. But perhaps we could agree that our nation could not continue on the path of spending someone else's money forever (your daughter's, my sons'). I take this as a fact. So something needed to be done. That's where we really should begin your story/essay. Thanks Dave, let's see how this trariff thing unravels together.
Ha! Yeah, Dave. I can totally relate to the hesitation of sending out an opinion. I’ve got a dear friend with whom I very much disagree. As I do with your negative Trump opinions. Wouldn’t call myself a disciple, thanks for the knock, though. I’d say I give the guy the benefit of the doubt. For decades he has complained of the ‘loser deals’ our politicians and bureaucrats have accepted. He’s doing something about it and tariffs are the stick to get access to the American consumer market carrot.
I agree, technology is evolving quick. If you listen to Peter Zeihan, it better. Global population will follow Japan and Germany. Who knows where it all leads?
But I’ll tell you this - Biden’s administration hammered us with significant inflation which has yet to retreat. Our government will choose inflation over tax increases every time. Tariffs or taxes, we will pay either way.
Maybe do some research on how the UK did after they lost the global currency.
Thank you for sharing your opinion.
The video was really helpful. The challenge with bullying as a main strategy is that it tends to work short term and backfire long-term. Win-win is just more effective generally than win-lose. I foresee the rest of the world beginning to work together around us while inflation continues to grow and the number of jobs created don't pay enough to outweigh the costs. Multinational companies are great at symbolic acts that do not make a significant difference but fool everyone who is ready to be fooled. By the way, Nvidia is a company with very close ties to China...I hope that I am wrong but I am worried.
Money is the root of all evil. Never has a truer line been written.
Good piece, Dave.
I'm also not an economist, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night... However, the US must refinance 9.2 Trillion in debt this year, maybe by the end of June. The Fed meets in May. A trade war scares investors. When investors shift money from stocks to Treasury bonds, interest rates tend to fall. There's more to this than meets the eye.